Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
